Thinking in Bets
A poker champion on separating a good decision from a good outcome, which are far less related than they feel.
Annie Duke spent two decades as a professional poker player, and applies that training to ordinary decisions: separating the quality of a choice from the quality of its outcome, since good decisions lose often and bad ones frequently win. The result is a practical method for thinking in probabilities when you will never have complete information.
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Derek Sivers
Amazing point: Would your belief in something stand up to the question, “Wanna bet?” If you had to gamble significant money on that belief, would you still feel 100% about it? Or maybe more honestly 60%?
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