The Black Swan

Nassim Nicholas Taleb calls a Black Swan a rare, unpredictable event that carries massive consequences and looks obvious only in hindsight. In this provocative book he argues that such events, not the predictable ones, shape history, markets, and our lives, and that our models and forecasts systematically miss them. Combining probability, philosophy, and sharp wit, it is a lasting argument for humility about what we can know. Jeff Bezos put it on Amazon’s senior leadership reading list.